With yesterday's SAG Awards proving to be just as unpredictable as the Golden Globes, this year's Oscars might just prove to have some upsets on the night.
There doesn't appear, at least on the surface, to be any discernible favourite to win in the major categories. 'Green Book', for example, won the Producers Guild Awards, but 'Black Panther' won its equivalent at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Glenn Close won at the Golden Globes, yet Lady Gaga won at the Critics' Choice Awards.
In short, it's a particularly murky-looking Oscars night.
With that in mind, we've consulted the bookies and their odds to see if there's any way of understanding how the Oscars will play out on the night. We checked the odds for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor and Best Actress across high-street bookmakers including Paddy Power, William Hill and BoyleSports via OddsChecker.com to see if there was any consistency in their predictions.
As it turns out, there actually was.
We'll start with the Best Actress category.
Glenn Close now appears to be the bookies' favourite to win, as both Paddy Power, William Hill and BoyleSports all have her odds at 1/5. That's a pretty unanimous decision for Close to win. Olivia Colman, meanwhile, is 5/1 to win whilst Lady Gaga's odds are now 6/1 with William Hill, 9/1 with Paddy Power and 10/1 with BoyleSports. That means if Gaga wins, a tenner bet will get you €100.
The Best Actor category, however, is a bit diverse.
Rami Malek has 1/2 at William Hill and BoyleSports, and 4/9 at Paddy Power. Christian Bale, meanwhile, has 6/4 at William Hill, 17/10 at Paddy Power, and then 2/1 odds at BoyleSports. Bradley Cooper, meanwhile, is 9/1 to win with William Hill and Paddy Power, and 12/1 to win at BoyleSports.
Best Picture, however, definitely has something interesting predictions.
'Roma' appears to be the bookies' favourite, with odds from William Hill, Paddy Power and BoyleSports coming in at 5/6, 8/11 and 10/11 respectively. The odds on 'Green Book' winning are drifting currently, with 3/1 odds from William Hill and BoyleSports, and 10/3 odds with Paddy Power. 'The Favourite', meanwhile, commands 7/1 odds with William Hill and Paddy Power and 8/1 odds at BoyleSports. 'A Star Is Born' has some decent odds on winning, with 9/1 on William Hill, 11/1 on Paddy Power and 10/1 on BoyleSports. 'Vice', however, has the biggest odds - 40/1 on William Hill and 50/1 on Paddy Power and BoyleSports.
The Best Director category, meanwhile, follows the same thinking as Best Picture.
Alfonso Cuaron is the favourite to win across all three bookmakers. William Hill only offer 1/12 odds, whilst Paddy Power and BoyleSports are only offering 1/10 odds. That means a tenner bet will only return your original bet with only €1 in profit. The next immediate favourite to win is Spike Lee for 'Blackkklansman', with 8/1 odds with William Hill and BoyleSports, and 7/1 odds with Paddy Power. Yorgos Lanthimos and 'The Favourite', meanwhile, has 25/1 odds across all three bookies.
So, what's the reason for these odds? Well, with regards to Best Director and Best Picture, Netflix has been spending serious money on their campaign for 'Roma'. An estimated $10 to $20 million has been spent on the movie's Oscar advertising, making it the priciest campaign in years. Netflix are determined to win an Oscar, and 'Roma' could well be the one to do it.
Whether it actually wins on the night remains to be seen, but it seems pretty likely that the oddsmakers are being calculated on this sentiment. Glenn Close, meanwhile, appears to be tracking as a good solid bet to win, but a win on the night doesn't seem that likely. Remember that both the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards have pretty small voting pools, and the Oscars counts over 6,000 members' votes.
You can check out our own predictions on this year's Oscars right here.
