Although the Golden Globes is not the solid prediction that it once was for the Oscars, it does give a good indication of what way the nominations for it will shake out.
What often happens is that betting odds - yes, really - will wildly shift when the Golden Globes winners are announce, before settling into a more firmer picture. Much has been made of how this year's Golden Globes shut out a number of expected contestants, such as 'Little Women' and Greta Gerwig from Best Musical / Comedy and Best Director respectively.
Meanwhile, '1917' staked itself as a major contender for Best Picture in the Oscars and could have well denied the likes of 'Uncut Gems', 'The Lighthouse' and countless others from the category. So, what way will the major movie categories play out? Let's begin with...
BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)
The nominees are...
If you knew nothing about how the Golden Globes actually votes, you could put 'The Irishman' down as a relatively safe choice here. When you understand the age profile and general makeup of the HFPA - that's the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the voting pool that decides the Golden Globes - it becomes all but a virtual certainty. 'The Irishman' is the lock here, and the close second is most likely either 'Marriage Story' or 'The Two Popes'. In short, this is going to be Netflix's year and it's quite possible that you could see the Best Picture category at the Oscars looking the same way.
BEST PICTURE (COMEDY / MUSICAL)
The nominees are...
'Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood'
Comedy / Musical and the Golden Globes' insistence on certain movies being classified as a comedy - e.g. 'The Martian' is a comedy - is always a strange one. Yet, for whatever reason, this year feels like the most neatly defined. All of these movies fit well within the defining parameters. That aside, who's most likely to win? Again, you look to who's actually going to vote on this and you know it's more than likely going to be 'Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood'.
Generally speaking, if it's a movie about movies, you can expect a nomination and put it higher up the ranking for a win. That 'Once Upon A Time...' happened to be pretty damn good and you're on to a winner. The next possible choice could well be 'Jojo Rabbit', as it's set in Europe, it's about a time period that always does well, and the HFPA likes the idea of movies with a message so it fits the expected voting sentiment.
BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)
The nominees are...
Scarlett Johansson - 'Marriage Story'
Saoirse Ronan - 'Little Women'
Charlize Theron - 'Bombshell'
Renée Zellweger - 'Judy'
Cynthia Ervio - 'Harriet'
Seeing as how well received both 'Little Women' and 'Marriage Story' were, this is a two-woman race between ScarJo and our Saoirse. The odds favour ScarJo, however, as she's been nominated five times and never once won, whereas Saoirse picked up a win for 'Lady Bird'. If you're putting money down, split the stake and bet on both of them as it could well be that Saoirse could walk away with another one.
BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)
The nominees are...
Christian Bale - 'Ford v Ferrari'
Antonio Banderas - 'Pain and Glory'
Adam Driver - 'Marriage Story'
Joaquin Phoenix - 'Joker'
Jonathan Pryce - 'The Two Popes'
Trying to figure out why Jonathan Pryce was nominated and Anthony Hopkins wasn't nominated distracts from the fact that Christian Bale - good and all as he was in 'Ford v Ferrari' - was nominated over Brad Pitt's performance in 'Ad Astra'. Madness. Utter madness. Anyways, the likely winner is going to probably end up as Antonio Banderas for two main reasons. Firstly, the HFPA loves Pedro Almodovar and will always vote for his work and the actors in his movies. Second, Antonio Banderas just flat-out deserves it. Joaquin Phoenix, sure, he gave a very thrilling and committed performance in 'Joker', but there's no real way it's going to get past the nomination stage. That might not necessarily extend to the Oscars, but here, for the Golden Globes, it does.
BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY / MUSICAL)
The nominees are...
Ana de Armas - 'Knives Out'
Awkwafina - 'The Farewell'
Cate Blanchett - 'Where'd You Go, Bernadette'
Beanie Feldstein - 'Booksmart'
Emma Thomspon - 'Late Night'
If you happened to catch 'The Farewell' when it came through cinemas last year, there wouldn't be a single doubt in your mind about Awkwafina taking the win here. She was instantly charming, effortlessly compelling, and the story matched her own so beautifully that it never once failed to make an impact. It really was a hidden gem of 2019, so that she should win means hopefully more people will come to find it. The next likely candidate is undoubtedly Beanie Feldstein in 'Booksmart', but really, this is all but certain to go for Awkwafina.
BEST ACTOR (COMEDY / MUSICAL)
The nominees are...
Daniel Craig - 'Knives Out'
Leonardo DiCaprio - 'Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood'
Eddie Murphy - 'Dolemite Is My Name'
Roman Griffin Davis - 'Jojo Rabbit'
Taron Egerton - 'Rocketman'
As much as the Golden Globes loves a good musical, last year's win with 'Bohemian Rhapsody' and Rami Malek effectively ensures that Taron Egerton and 'Rocketman' are out of the running, even though it's the better movie and he gave the better performance. Daniel Craig was brilliant in 'Knives Out' and managed to stand out in a movie that had an embarrassment of riches. Still, it's too twisty and funny for the HFPA to take it as a winner. That leaves Eddie Murphy as Rudy Ray Moore for 'Dolemite Is My Name' as the likely winner, and to be honest, it's the most deserving. It was his best movie in years by far, and one of his most vulnerable and affecting performances.
BEST DIRECTOR
Sam Mendes - '1917'
Quentin Tarantino - 'Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood'
Bong Joon Ho - 'Parasite'
Todd Phillips - 'Joker'
Martin Scorsese - 'The Irishman'
This is actually a pretty tough one to call, maybe the toughest category in the movies section of the Golden Globes. The likelihood is that it could well split between Bong Joon Ho for 'Parasite' and Scorsese for 'The Irishman', but Sam Mendes and '1917' was a late entry to the race and that can't be discounted either. Quentin Tarantino, of course, was always expected to be nominated and the same goes for Todd Phillips. Gun to head? Probably Bong Joon Ho on the fact that the HFPA almost always tends to favour foreign directors when they're in contention. The surprise, if anything, is that Pedro Almodovar didn't get a look in for 'Pain and Glory'.
