We're close to five months out from the night in question, but the race for the Oscars has officially begun with film festivals like Venice, Toronto and Telluride all showing some of the heavy-hitters for this season.
It's important to point out that these are early, early predictions and some of the choices have yet to be screened for either audiences or critics. We're basing our choices on past winners, voting sentiments and the names attached, as well as our best guesses and analysis of what works for Oscars season.
Let's get to it.
BEST ACTOR
The big question mark this season in both Best Actor, Best Picture and Best Director is Nate Parker and The Birth Of A Nation. The controversy surrounding Parker's history has definitely played a huge part and it's hard to say if, come Oscars season, the voters will have forgiven or forgotten it. The AFI even stressed that it hadn't cancelled its screening of Birth Of A Nation, merely rescheduled it for another time - most likely when the allegations surrounding Parker had died down. Our early predictions are...
RYAN GOSLING - La La Land
CASEY AFFLECK - Manchester By The Sea
JOEL EDGERTON - Loving
NATE PARKER - Birth Of A Nation
DENZEL WASHINGTON - Fences
The smart money says to back Ryan Gosling in La La Land. It's an all-singing, all-dancing salute to Los Angeles and film, and that's exactly what Academy voters love - their industry being shown in the most positive light. Plus, the early reviews have been crazy good for La La Land so it stands to reason that Gosling has the best chance to win an Oscar here. Denzel Washington's already won an Oscar, but there's nothing whatsoever stopping him from scooping up another here with Fences, an adaptation of a classic play that he's been heavily involved with for many years.
BEST ACTRESS
Unlike last year's race, where it was dominated by Brie Larson and Room, it looks like this year's will be much more tightly fought, as early word for Rebecca Hall in period biopic Christine and our own Ruth Negga in Loving are all extremely positive. Here's who we're thinking for Best Actress nominations...
RUTH NEGGA - Loving
REBECCA HALL - Christine
AMY ADAMS - Arrival
NATALIE PORTMAN - Jackie
EMMA STONE - La La Land
From everything we've seen and read about Christine and Rebecca Hall's performance therein, it looks like she's got this thing sewn up and is the most deserved winner. However, the subject matter - a broadcaster who literally commits suicide on-air after a long battle with depression and sexism in the workplace - might just be too much for Academy voters. That said, this year will see the revitalised voting pools in action, so that gives Rebecca Hall and Christine a huge chance to win. If, however, it doesn't work out that way, the next viable option would either likely be Natalie Portman in Jackie or Ruth Negga in Loving.
BEST PICTURE
This year will see the new Academy members joining the voting pools and will likely have an impact on which films are chosen. While stalwarts such as Clint Eastwood's Sully might be in with a chance for nomination, it's highly unlikely they'll even come close to winning. We could even some more broadly watched films like The Jungle Book make an appearance as well. Here's our choices...
HACKSAW RIDGE
LA LA LAND
LOVING
BILLY LYNN'S HALF-TIME WALK
HELL OR HIGH WATER
THE FOUNDER
JACKIE
THE JUNGLE BOOK
SULLY
ARRIVAL
Mel Gibson is slowly but surely fighting his way out of exile and Hacksaw Ridge's ten-minute standing ovation at Venice Film Festival has certainly helped to put the film on the map. Whether or not Academy voters have forgiven him remains to be seen, but the fact is Mel Gibson is an incredibly talented director and Hacksaw Ridge is a serious contender. The Jungle Book will clean up in the technicals, but is unlikely to feature outside of a nomination. Billy Lynn's Half-Time Walk looks like it has adecent chance, as does Fences and Jeff NIchols' Loving. Damian Chazelle and La La Land, however, look like they've got the best chance of winning this for reasons mentioned earlier. If it doesn't win here, it'll win in either in Best Actor or Best Director. Hell Or High Water, as much as we loved it, has an outside shot of winning here. There isn't much of a campaign around it so far, but it's a fantastic film and deserves to be nominated.
BEST DIRECTOR
More than anything, this category is particularly hard to call. Many of the possible options, such as Damien Chazelle and Ang Lee, have been in contention before whereas others like Mel Gibson and Nate Parker are wrapped up in controversy. Arguably our toughest to call. Here's our early picks...
Damien Chazelle for LA LA LAND
Denis Villeneuve for ARRIVAL
Ang Lee for BILLY LYNN'S HALF-TIME WALK
Nate Parker for BIRTH OF A NATION
Mel Gibson for HACKSAW RIDGE
As we mentioned earlier, both Nate Parker and Mel Gibson are under a cloud. Nate Parker has been in the spotlight from a rape trial from 2001 whilst Mel Gibson's had to contend with, well, take your pick. The most likely option is the Oscars will simply sidestep both of these controversies - and the resultant ones should they win - and give it to a safer option like Ang Lee or Damien Chazelle. That's not to discount their work, either. Both of these are excellent, excellent directors and it's a very strong pool this year and the race is, quite honestly, too tight to tell. A couple of months more and this category will begin to clear out more evenly and we'll have a better idea. Right now, it's too murky to call.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The return of Dory, Nemo and Marlon to our screens means that Pixar and Disney are definitely in contention for a Best Animated Feature gong. However, Laika Studios' excellent Kubo And The Two Strings is also a factor here and, realistically, the race boils down to these two. Here's our choices...
FINDING DORY
KUBO AND THE TWO STRINGS
SAUSAGE PARTY
ZOOTOPIA
THE RED TURTLE
You might scoff or laugh at the notion of Sausage Party being mentioned here, but the truth is that it's the first of its kind and the Academy should acknowledge that. Will it win Best Animated Feature? Not a chance, but dammit we want to live in that parallel universe. Most likely to win here is either Finding Dory or Kubo And The Two Strings, with Zootopia possibly being a third option. The Red Turtle, well, it's a Studio Ghibli film and they are rarely overlooked for nominations so it stands to reason it'll be in the mix somewhere along the way.
So, there you have it. Once the nominations are announced, we'll have a better understanding of where everything sits. We're harping on about it repeatedly, but the fact is that this year's Oscar race is incredibly tough to call - both for the level of quality on show this year and yet to come, and for the fact that the long-awaited changeup in voting pools will take place this year.
Nominations are due to be announced on January 24th, 2017 and the ceremony itself will take place on February 26th, 2017. We'll have all the coverage and analysis on the lead up to Oscar night, but until then, let us know what you think of our choices in the comments!
