Short answer? It won't - not really.
While there were some minor upsets in the Golden Globes last night, namely Sam Rockwell picking up Best Supporting Actor and Three Billboards snatching Best Picture (Drama) ahead of Dunkirk, this may not necessarily be an indicator of things to come for the Oscars. A lot of this comes down to the fact that the voting pools are completely different between the Hollywood Foreign Press Association - made up of 90 members, total - and the Academy Of Motion Pictures And Sciences - which is made up of thousands of members of the industry.
What's more likely to guide the Oscars is in the acting categories more so than the Best Picture categories. For example, 2014 saw The Grand Budapest Hotel take home the Best Picture (Comedy / Musical), which was in the same category as Birdman. Birdman eventually won Best Picture at the Oscars that year. In 2013, 12 Years A Slave picked up Best Drama in the same category as Gravity, which eventually won Best Picture at the Oscars. Granted, last year saw La La Land and Moonlight both pick up Golden Globes, and then the whole debacle at the Oscars played out.
In the acting categories, the analysis bears out that a win in the Golden Globes is an anointment for winning in the Oscars. 2015 saw Leonardo DiCaprio pick up Best Actor (Drama) and then win out in the Oscars for The Revenant, the same with Brie Larson for Room. 2014 was even more so - all four Oscar winners won in their categories at the Golden Globes; Eddie Redmayne, Patricia Arquette, Julieanne Moore, and JK Simmons.
Balloting for the Oscars kicked off two days before the Golden Globes, with the voting process running through until January 13th. The eventual nominations are announced by January 23rd. From there, the final voting runs from February 20th to the 27th, with the winners announced on March 4th at the ceremony itself.
The real indicators for the Oscars comes from the SAG Awards, the PGA Awards and the WGA Awards, primarily because the voters here are more often the same voters in the Academy. In fact, the PGA - that's the Producer Guild Of America - has correctly predicted 19 of the past 27 Best Picture wins and is often viewed as the most reliable source for who wins Best Picture. Since 2008, the PGA and the Academy have disagreed twice - Spotlight won at the Oscars over The Big Short, and Moonlight won over La La Land.
This year's PGA Award nominations include Wonder Woman, The Big Sick (which was left out of the Golden Globes entirely), Dunkirk, Lady Bird, Get Out, Call Me By Your Name, The Shape Of Water, Three Billboards Outside Of Ebbing Missouri, Molly's Game, The Post and I Tonya. If you're keeping count at home, that's 11 nominees and the Academy only allows 10 nominees for Best Picture - so expect probably The Big Sick or Wonder Woman to be left out when it comes time for the Oscar nominations.
Whatever happens on March 4th, whoever wins, one thing's for certain - there won't be anything like what happened last year.