With today's Oscar nominations now officially announced, so begins the long campaign to the ceremony and the back-and-forth over who'll win and who'll wince on the night.
Guillermo del Toro's The Shape Of Water made a strong showing with a total of 13 nominations whilst Christopher Nolan's Dunkirk managed eight nominations including Best Picture and Best Director. Meanwhile, Three Billboards came away with seven nominations, including two Best Supporting Actor nominations for Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson, and Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele both received Best Director nominations.
As always, our predictions take in Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Director and Best Picture.
We begin, as always with...
BEST ACTOR
Timothee Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington - Roman J. Israel, Esq.
As always, Daniel Day-Lewis gets the customary nomination for deciding to work this year, but most likely he'll go back to Wicklow empty-handed as the fates have decided that it's Gary Oldman's year to win an Oscar. The man's put in the time and while you may have your own thoughts on the character he played in Darkest Hour, there's no denying he has an impressive body of work that deserves to be rewarded. Denzel Washington clearly looks like a last-minute replacement for James Franco, and it's also good to see Daniel Kaluuya get recognised for his work in Get Out, too. Timothee Chalamet did well in Call Me By Your Name, but sadly Michael Stuhlbarg was left out of the Best Supporting Actor category.
Who'll win? Gary Oldman.
Who should win? Gary Oldman.
BEST ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins - The Shape Of Water
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie - I Tonya
Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
Meryl Streep - The Post
This is a two-way race between Frances McDormand and Saoirse Ronan. This is Ronan's third nomination and the Carlovian woman is only 23. Twenty-three. That's insane. Frances McDormand picked up an Oscar for Fargo back in '96 and is always a good bet in any awards season. Margot Robbie and Sally Hawkins as the Dark Horses here, whilst Meryl Streep picks up her twenty-first nomination, but not a hope of winning here. So, to the prediction - McDormand picked up the SAG Award for Best Actress the other day, and Ronan won for Best Actress (Comedy / Musical) in the Golden Globes. The SAG voting pool is much more tightly-knit than the Oscars, so while it's a good predictor for the most part, the fact remains that Ronan's still in strong contention here.
Who'll win? Flip a coin. Can honestly go either way between McDormand and Ronan.
Who should win? SAOIRSE RONAN, COME ON IRELAND.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins - The Shape Of Water
Christopher Plummer - All The Money In The World
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Plummer getting a nomination is the Academy of Motion Picture and Sciences lighting up a giant neon sign that says "F*CK YOU KEYSER SOZE" and aiming it in Kevin Spacey's general vicinity. At 88, he's now the oldest nominee for Best Supporting Actor in history, but there's precious little else happening with him. Woody Harrelson and Sam Rockwell nominated for the same film is interesting, and it's great to see Richard Jenkins in there for The Shape Of Water as well. Sam Rockwell's the favourite to win here; he's done well up until now and he's a real actor's actor.
Who'll win? Sam Rockwell.
Who should win? Willem Dafoe.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J. Blige - Mudbound
Allison Janney - I Tonya
Lesley Manville - Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer - The Shape Of Water
Mudbound's done exceptionally well so far, and Mary J. Blige is always a welcome addition to any awards ceremony. The likelihood of her winning her isn't great, as this is really between Allison Janney in I Tonya and Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird. For our money, Metcalf gave the on-screen performance of her career and we include her years as Jackie in Roseanne. Octavia Spencer's always a good shout and so to is Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread, so it's really just a case of politics and luck on the night. Metcalf's more known for her theatre work, and doesn't really do a lot of film work, where as Janney's been doing television and film for a lot longer.
Who'll win? Allison Janney.
Who should win? Break the thing in two and give the other half to Laurie Metcalf.
BEST DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Jordan Peele - Get Out
Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread
Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape Of Water
Martin McDonagh's been shut out of the Best Director category here, which is interesting but not totally surprising. A lot of people were surprised to see him in the conversation for Best Director in the first place, but the addition of Greta Gerwig needs to be highlighted. It's a disgrace that she hasn't been nominated for something sooner, and there's no good argument for it. Like his star Daniel Day-Lewis, P.T. Anderson is always expected to get a nomination. Christopher Nolan, who we'd have pegged as the odds-on favourite to win this during the summer, now seems largely absent from any analyses. It's a shame, and any other year without the likes of Lady Bird or The Shape Of Water, he'd be a shoo-in.
Who'll win? Probably Gulllermo del Toro.
Who should win? The fact that both Jordan Peele AND Greta Gerwig are in contention on their debut film is incredible, and should be recognised. Any other year, this would be Christopher Nolan's to lose.
BEST PICTURE
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape Of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Nine nominations this year, and decidedly absent is The Disaster Artist. Was it pulled at the last minute? Without a doubt, in our opinion. The stink around James Franco is that fetid, nobody wants anything to do with that film. The Post, naturally, is in the mix because a film with Steven Spielberg, Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks about journalism in the '70s can't not be. That'd cause the universe to collapse in on itself. Always great to see the likes of Get Out and Call Me By Your Name in the mix, but both of them are going to be hard-pressed to win against favourites like The Shape Of Water and Three Billboards. Darkest Hour and Dunkirk basically cancel themselves out, and Phantom Thread's another seat-filler nomination. The trajectory of Three Billboards on the awards circuit so far has been interesting to chart; nobody expected - certainly not us, anyway - it to do so well at the Golden Globes and the backlash / whatever-you-wanna-call-it against it has been pretty severe in the interim.
Who'll win? The race here is wide open, but on the basis of momentum, Three Billboards.
Who should win? If the Academy had the chutzpah to do something bold and original, Get Out. Failing that, Dunkirk. Any other year, Dunkirk would be walking away with all of them.
So that's our predictions so far. Obviously, if they turn out to be wildly inaccurate, we'll just chalk it up to hysteria and deny everything we've written. What's your predictions? Is Saoirse Ronan the clear favourite to win Best Actress? How do you rate Dunkirk's chances? How do you feel about the fact that John Wick: Chapter 2 was BLATANTLY left out the Best Picture category? Let us know what you think in the comments!